[merlin]

Aircraft maker expects the Turkish commercial aviation fleet to double in the next two decades and be worth some $24 billion.

As Turkey is the fastest growing economy in Europe, so will it lead the continent in air traffic growth, said Laurent Rouaud, vice president in charge of market forecasts and research for Airbus.




Rouaud joined Airbus regional press manager Maggie Bergsma and Gunther Schubert, customer marketing director, to release the aircraft maker's global market forecast in Istanbul on Tuesday.


Speaking at a press conference at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel, Rouaud said commercial airline traffic will triple in the next 20 years, with the number of new aircraft expected to double in the same period.


“We project Turkey will rank number five worldwide in terms of growth and expect the Turkish fleet to double in the next two decades,” said Rouaud. “Airlines in Turkey will therefore demand 263 aircraft worth about $24 billion, and we anticipate getting at least half of that demand.”


Airbus first signed a deal with TAI in 1998 and renewed it last year, with TAI employing some 200 people manufacturing fuselage components in a contract valued at over $100 million. Turkish company PFW supplies auxiliary center tanks (ACTs) and floor structures to Airbus, while Lisi, a British-Turkish joint venture, supplies fasteners.


Regional press manager Bergsma said, “We don't come here often, but thought it was time,” particularly with a cargo transporters conference going on at the same hotel.


Airbus is about to begin test flights of its next-generation super jumbo, the A380, for which “the whole team is pulling like one person, with one mind,” said Rouaud.


The new double-decker aircraft, able to be configured for up to 1,000 seats, will take its first flight within the next two weeks, with four aircraft going through the trials. Airbus has taken firm orders from 15 airlines so far and expects to sell more than 750 of what they call “very large aircraft” over the next two decades.


Since no market for the super jumbo is seen in Turkey, Airbus customer marketing director Schubert wanted to present the European aircraft giant's plans for a new long-range 250 seater, the A350 series. Airbus has 58 firm commercial orders for its two new wide-body aircraft, the A350-800 and the A350-900.


Due to enter service in the first half of 2010, the A350 models will complement the existing Airbus A330 and A340 product line, said Schubert.


Asked how he could market this new aircraft when Turkish Airlines (THY) just ordered 36 of the A330s, Schubert said the model THY bought could still fly with a full passenger load from Istanbul to Los Angeles but that the new ones also will be able to do the same distance with a full load of cargo.


Both Rouaud and Schubert freely tossed around the Boeing name, and they can rightly be proud of their company having taken the lead from the American aircraft maker over the past 10 years. It has yet to be seen whether the U.S. company made a strategic mistake by choosing not to develop a super jumbo; however, there is no doubt that Airbus went from having 18 percent of the commercial aviation market in the early 1980s to having more than 50 percent today.

Airbus backlog orders outnumber Boeing's 1,500 to 1,000 but are double in terms of dollar value as the European manufacturer has captured the profitable mid and long-range market from its American rival.


Aviation analysts have not written Boeing off yet - the company is developing new aircraft - but the Chicago-based company stumbled in the past year as a procurement scandal landed the chief financial officer in jail and a romantic affair with a company employee forced the resignation of its chief executive.


The United States and Europe also dispute what cosntitues unlawful subsidies for their respective aircraft industries. On Monday a dealine passed to act before the World Trade Organization, leaving Airbus uncertain on when it can apply for $1.3 billion in development loans for the A350. Boeing's 787 Dreamliner, already in development and with several customers lined up, is the direct competitor for Airbus in the mid-size segment.


Schubert estimated the market for aircraft in the 250-300 seat category at some 3,100 new aircraft over the next 20 years, of which Airbus expects to get at least 50 percent.


Reporters asked Schubert whether last year's order by THY was politically motivated ahead of the December European Commission meeting to decide on granting a date to start membership accession negotiations with Turkey.


“Politics definitely play a part in commercial aircraft orders, but Turkish Airlines is in business to make money and they made the order based on economic analysis of what the aircraft could deliver,” he said.




Turkish market for Airbus

36 purchased + 32 leased in 2004

89 aircraft in service

12 airlines as customers 50% market share